At noon on July 6, the Sino-US trade war officially started! What impact will this trade war have on China's auto industry? This is a question that many people have recently inquired about. Today I do a preliminary analysis here.
Before the analysis, let's take a look at the attitude of most people in the domestic auto industry before the trade war: 1. They think that they can't fight. This is a misjudgment caused by the influence of public opinion for a long time in the past. The anticipation of these people really broke out; 2. Even if there is a fight, the impact will not be too great. After all, China imported more than 1.2 million cars last year, accounting for only a little over 4% of the total domestic car sales. Don't engage in the import car trade yourself, let the people who do this kind of business figure out how to snatch the customs clearance from July 1st to 5th!
Does it really matter to most Autobots? It's not. I think that the start of the Sino-US trade war will bring three major challenges to the Chinese auto industry:
First, consumers' purchasing power of automobiles will decline for a long time to come. We all know that investment, consumption and exports are the "troika" that drives economic growth. Among the three, exports account for a considerable proportion, and one of the main destinations is the United States. If the Sino-US trade war starts and continues to escalate, it will undoubtedly have a great impact on the Chinese economy. Economic growth is slowing down, and consumer income will definitely decline. These days, the stock market has taken the lead, evaporating the wealth of many people!
Second, China's auto parts exports may suffer. Although China exported less than 900,000 complete vehicles last year, and the destinations were developing countries, there are still many parts and components exported. In 2017, the net export value reached 334.6 billion yuan, of which the United States was the main destination. Except for Fuyao Glass and other companies that have established factories in the United States, most of them are exporting. Tires have been greatly affected by anti-dumping in the past. If this trade war escalates, parts and components may not be able to escape.
Third, the development of intelligent networked vehicles will be greatly affected. At present, whether it is a traditional car-making force or a new Internet-based car-making force, the intelligent network connection, especially the R&D center of autonomous driving, is located in Silicon Valley of the United States. When the Sino-US trade war starts, this high-tech industry will bear the brunt, and the Chinese automobile industry will bear the brunt. The speed of "change lanes and run first" will slow down.
There are challenges, and of course there are opportunities, which are mainly manifested in two aspects:
On the one hand, the state will attach great importance to automobile consumption. In the current consumption expenditure structure of ordinary people, the most important ones are housing, automobiles, and education. Other consumption is also being upgraded, but the size cannot be compared with these three types of consumption. The real estate market is now high in housing prices, the task of transferring inventory is coming to an end, and it is impossible to introduce new stimulus policies; in addition to further education and training, a considerable part of education consumption is studying abroad, and the main destination is the United States, so it is impossible to encourage ;The rest are cars! As of the end of last year, the number of cars in China was 217 million, and the number of cars per thousand people was 131, which is far lower than the average level of developed countries, and there should be a lot of room. If the economic growth slows down too fast, the state will find a way in this regard. In terms of new energy vehicle consumption, it will mainly increase efforts to improve infrastructure such as charging; in terms of traditional fuel vehicle consumption, it will expand auto financial consumption, encourage second-hand car transactions, and promote the elimination and renewal of old cars. It can be expected that the development of China's auto industry will usher in a better domestic consumption environment.
On the other hand, automobile exports will usher in new opportunities. If the Sino-US trade war starts and escalates, this part of the goods exported to the US in the past will inevitably find alternative countries, and the trade threshold between China and countries other than the US will be further lowered, creating conditions for Chinese goods to go out. Chinese cars can also go abroad in large quantities. Among them, countries along the “Belt and Road”, especially Southeast Asia, should be the first choice. Li Shufu has a vision and is always one step ahead of others. Last year, he was deployed in Malaysia. I have to say that he is a master!
