I remember when Obama came to power in 2009, he put forward a call to "buy American products" and launched the so-called "special protection case for tires exported to the United States" against Chinese tires. The case is worth about $1.7 billion. China's countermeasures are chicken and some car products. When Obama and Hu Jintao met at the UN meeting afterwards, the former said "this is just a case", while Hu Jintao said "the next one is not an example".
If it is said that Obama was just a political show for the United Steelworkers at that time, then the bullying of Trump's "American interests first" is real, and it is not only aimed at China. The opening scene of only $34 billion is 20 times the $1.7 billion that year, which can be described as fierce. That year, an American economist said in a congressional hearing that the case would increase consumer spending by $600-700 million a year. If it is said that the case saves every 3 jobs of American tire workers, it will cause the unemployment of 10 other related employees. This may be a true portrayal of the consequences of this year's trade war.
Auto products are too important to the economies of both countries to be spared in this trade war. Among them, the problem of auto parts is more complicated. Auto parts, including tires, are an important link in the long industrial and value chain of auto products.
In 2017, my country's exports of auto parts, accessories and bodies, auto tires and inner tubes, including other auto-related commodities, totaled US$61.378 billion, higher than the US$37.046 billion imported. The surplus was US$24.332 billion. But about 70% of these exported parts are products of foreign-funded enterprises. Among them, US-funded enterprises account for about 35%, and it is estimated that it affects about 5 billion to 8 billion US dollars of US-funded products. They belong to the gunmen, the victims of Trump's trade war. But Trump's biggest goal is to prevent China from surpassing the United States in technological and economic development; secondly, he is also pursuing trade balance, restoring industrial production in the "rust belt", and pursuing more jobs. There are already rumors that some U.S.-owned products will be moved back to the U.S. for production from China.
From the perspective of the export of auto parts, China and the United States have imposed tariffs on each other, which is harmful to the US auto industry's supporting and maintenance markets. For example, there are 19 domestic A-share listed companies that directly export to Tesla for supporting supply, including 7 structural parts and 2 interior parts. In addition, there are relays, thermal management systems, power battery management systems, maps, molds, and more. Some automotive electronics and powertrains are supplied by Hongfa Co., Ltd., Sanhua Zhikong, Joyson Electronics, NavInfo, Tianqi Mo, Changxin Technology, and Dongshan Precision. The 25% tariffs imposed on so many auto parts will undoubtedly make things worse for Tesla, which is already in serious financial crisis. In the maintenance market, it increases the burden on consumers. The 2009 "Tire Special Protection Case" is a vivid example.
As for my country's countermeasures against imported auto parts, the damage is to the high-end luxury cars of American brands assembled by imports, such as Cadillac, Jeep, Nissan, Infiniti and other models. The loss is 40 million yuan per year. And China pays the bills for the wealthy who buy cars. In the aftermarket, those luxury car parts are already ridiculously expensive, and adding 25% won't be too painful. It has little impact on domestic automakers such as Japan and Germany that rely on imported automatic transmissions and other assembly, because their origin is not in the United States. The start of the Sino-US trade war may promote the localization of some high-end brand auto parts in China. However, it remains to be seen whether the development of this trade war will affect the technical exchanges and cooperation between my country's intelligent networked vehicles and American science and technology companies, as well as the impact on the R&D bases of Chinese car companies in Detroit, San Francisco, Silicon Valley and other places in the United States.
